A Deeper Look at Sam Reinhart's Historic Season
After a brief breakdown of Sam Reinhart's season on the most recent episode of the Cats 'N' Rats Podcast, it's time to look deeper into Sam Reinhart's performance this year and his quest for 60 goals.
On the most recent episode of the Cats ‘N’ Rats Podcast (with yours truly on as a featured guest), the last segment was devoted to Panthers forward Sam Reinhart’s historic season and his chances of reaching the ever-elusive 60-goal plateau. It’s an achievement that has only happened 6 times since the 2004-05 lockout, 4 of which came since 2021-22 (Toronto’s Auston Matthews counts for half of those four instances, including this season) and has never been achieved in Panthers history. The only player to ever come close to scoring 60 in a season was Pavel Bure, who scored 58 goals in 1999-00 and 59 goals in 2000-01, winning the Rocket Richard Trophy in both of those seasons. Reinhart currently sits at 53 goals in 78 games, so getting to sixty, let alone Bure’s benchmark of 58 goals almost 25 years ago looks unlikely. That being said, Reinhart’s performances have still been incredible all season and are worthy of a deeper dive.
Not Bad Company
In the history of the Panthers organization, only two players have ever scored 50 goals in a single season, the afforementioned Bure, who did it twice, and Sam Reinhart, who has achieved that this season. Even other franchise greats like Aleksander Barkov and Olli Jokinen never scored 40 goals in a single season, let alone come close to scoring 50 in one season. Other than those two players, the highest number of goals scored in a single season by a Panthers player was… 42, a mark set by Carter Verhaeghe last year (who I wrote about once he scored his 40th goal). For a brief time, Verhaeghe was the only other 40-goal scorer the franchise had ever had apart from Bure (Matthew Tkachuk joined the Panthers’ 40-goal club only a few games after Verhaeghe did last season). This year, Sam Reinhart surpassed both of his compatriots and scored more goals than Verhaeghe or Tkachuk have ever managed in a single season by a wide margin. Even if Reinhart doesn’t get to 60 goals, his achievement puts him alongside one of the greatest players in the history of the franchise and a member of the Hockey Hall of Fame; that’s not bad company to be mentioned with in any way, shape, or form.
The Quest For 60
Sixty goals in a season has always been a benchmark for the great scorers of any age of hockey. Recently, that benchmark has been achieved by some of the game’s best talents (Auston Matthews twice in the last three seasons, Connor McDavid and David Pastrnak both hit the 60-goal mark last season), but scoring 60 in a season still remains rare as there have been only six 60-goal scorers in a single season since the 2004-05 lockout. Sam Reinhart’s quest for 60 goals started out extremely well this season as he bucked his trend of slow starts during his time in Florida, scoring 8 goals in his first 10 games. Reinhart matched his goal production from the entire 2022-23 season (31 goals) at the halfway point of the season (game 42 to be exact). Below these notes is a graph showing Reinhart’s goal total on a game-by-game basis as it accumulated throughout the season. Reinhart has been known to be a bit of a streaky goal scorer in the past during his Panthers’ tenure and that hasn’t entirely changed this year as whne he scores, he still tends to score in bunches, but it’s been a lot more consistent this year. There are only two stretches of 5 games or more when Reinhart failed to score a single goal; the first was a five-game stretch from December 8th to December 16th (games 26 to 30) and the second was a seven-game stretch from February 14th to February 27th (games 53 to 59). That seven-game stretch is likely what will ultimately prevent Reinhart from getting to that elusive 60-goal plateau, but his scoring throughout the season has been at an elite level and he’s managed to consistently put the puck in the net on a nightly basis other than those two stretches, so while his quest for 60 goals may ultimately fall short, he still has produced at an incredible level worthy of great praise and acclaim.
Okay, so Reinhart probably isn’t getting to 60 goals, you say, but how close did he get in his quest? Was he ever truly on pace to get 60 goals this season. Well, yes he was! Here’s a chart of what Reinhart’s goals per game rate was throughout the season (similar to the cumulative goal total graph above).
Scoring 60 goals in a full 82-game season means scoring at a pace of 0.73 goals per game (as shown by the black dotted line on the graph). Reinhart’s quick start (6 goals in 5 games for 1.2 goals per game) set him on a good pace early in the season even if that goal-a-game pace was never going to be sustainable as the season progressed. That being said, Reinhart maintained a very respectable goals per game rate even during that initial five game drought in early December dropped to their lowest point at 0.56 goals per game (which would be a 46-goal pace in an 82-game season). Around Christmas, Reinhart’s scoring came back with a vengeance; back-to-back games with two goals (against the Lightning and Rangers respectively) put him back towards that 0.73 goals per game pace needed to score 60 and a hat trick against Colorado (game 39) on January 6th sent Reinhart off to the races. After that game, he had scored 0.72 goals per game and for the next 15 games, Sam Reinhart was scoring at a pace that would have gotten him to 60 goals in a single season. The seven game slump in February dropped his goals per game rate to 0.66, which as mentioned before, is ultimately what may cause the quest for 60 to ultimately fall short. Think about this though, for a 15 game stretch more than halfway through an NHL season, 60 goals was far from impossible for Sam Reinhart; it was not only possible, but perfectly reasonable to believe that he could get there as he was scoring at the right pace needed over a full season to get to 60 goals. Even if he does fall short in the end, the fact that he came close and made it seem very possible that he would score 60 goals is incredible enough as it is and Reinhart’s valiant effort and the fact that his campaign for 60 didn’t fizzle out until February is an incredible achievement.
Where Did this Scoring Come from and Is it Sustainable?
Many people are looking at Sam Reinhart’s massive increase in goal-scoring this season and wondering the same thing: how much of this can he keep up after this season and what has happened that made this scoring possible? The answer to both of those questions lies in how many shots he’s taken this season; this is only the second season of his career where he’s taken over 200 shots in a single season (see graph below for more details). The only other instance being last year, when Reinhart’s finishing was well below-par compared to his career averages. His 13.7% shooting percentage last year was his lowest going back to the 2018-19 season and he still managed to score 31 goals. This year, his shooting percentage ballooned to an almost impossible 24.5% and there’s a good chance he finishes with about 225 shots this season given that the graph below only shows results from this season up to game 78.
In the next graph, notice that Reinhart’s shooting percentage, while inconsistent at times, has been on a noticeably upwawrd trend in the last five seasons. While that does mean that another season at a 24.5% shooting percentage is unlikely, what it does mean is that Reinhart should be a near-lock for 35 goals in a season every year that he remains in Florida and plays either a full season or very close to a full season. Let’s assume Reinhart’s shooting percentage next season is exactly the same 2021-22 shooting percentage of 17.7% and also assume that he has 220 shots on goal next season. In that scenario, Reinhart would score 40 goals in 2024-25. A lot of the increase in scoring is not just due to Reinhart getting luckier with his finishes this season; it is due to him being spending the last two years in a role that requires him to shoot more and at a much higher rate than previously asked of him throughout his career. Therefore, while another season where Reinhart could legitimately score 60 goals does appear unlikely, it is perfectly reasonable to believe that Sam Reinhart can become a perennial 40-goal scorer as long as he continues in his current role with the Panthers and maintains his impeccable bill of health that he’s had throughout his career up to this point, so his scoring will likely not fall back to the low-30s where it was in his first two seasons with the Panthers, instead falling to a perennial 40-45 goals per season, with an occasional brush with 50 goals in a season should the bounces go his way, making at least some of what we have seen from him this year, very sustainable.
Where Does this Season Sit among the Panthers’ Best Ever?
When it comes to the overall history of the franchise, Sam Reinhart has already cobbled together one of the franchise’s top-10 overall scoring seasons. As of April 8th, 2024, Reinhart has 90 points in 78 games, putting him 8th on the list of best scoring seasons in franchise history in between Olli Jokinen’s 2005-06 and 2006-07 seasons (89 and 91 points respectively). Should Reinhart manage to get three more points in the four remaining games (a very likely proposition), then that would put him 5th on the list in between Pavel Bure’s two Rocket Richard winning seasons in 1999-00 (94 points) and 2000-01 (92 points). He also sits only six points shy of Aleksander Barkov’s career best 96-point season in 2018-19, which sits 3rd on the list of the best scoring seasons in franchise history. While seven points in four games may be a bit more of a taller order than the three in four needed to get Reinhart in the top 5 scoring seasons in franchise history, it is very possible that Sam Reinhart could finish the 2023-24 season with 97 points, which would make it, in terms of point production, the third greatest season in the history of the franchise. No matter how these final four games go, this is one of the best scoring seasons that the Panthers have ever had in their history and it’s a wonder that we have been able to witness such a piece of history happen live. Hopefully, Sam Reinhart chooses to stay in South Florida and have a few more historically great seasons like the one he is currently enjoying right now.
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