Instant Reaction (Sort Of): The Panthers in Free Agency
The Panthers made some moves in the first days of free agency hoping to improve their depth and rebuild their defense. They avoided big names and went with value buys to do so.
This was originally meant to be a reaction to just the moves made on the first day of free agency by the Florida Panthers, but after the moves made last night and consequently, this morning, I felt that it would be better to include them in this as well so I could get a full view of what the team did and react to the first 24 to 48 hours of free agency in a more complete way. The Panthers made plenty of moves in that time span, signing two forwards (while also agreeing to terms with a third), four defensemen, and a goaltender as they sought to fill out their roster with depth and improve a defensive corps that was woefully outgunned and overmatched in the Stanley Cup Finals against the Vegas Golden Knights. A lot of the moves were attempts at finding bargains rather than big game hunting, very similar to the way that Panthers’ general manager Bill Zito has approached free agency in the past (a more in-depth look at Zito’s patterns in free agency will be coming out soon). For this piece, I’m grouping the signings by position (Start with the forwards, then defensemen, then goalies) and will start with analyzing the trade that the Panthers made Saturday evening. For each player, I will be posting an image of their JFresh analytics card, which are accessible via his Patreon for about $5 a month. He also posts these cards on Twitter for free and does a lot of super interesting stuff that makes analytics easy to understand for fans, so go and give him a follow or subscribe to his Patreon to support JFresh and his work. Also, I am not going to be looking at minor league signings in this piece, so there won’t be any analysis of Lucas Carlsson, Alexander True, Gerald Mayhew, or the worst player from the 2016 draft, Will Lockwood in this piece. With that, let’s get into it.
THE TRADE: LW Anthony Duclair to the San Jose Sharks for C/LW Steven Lorentz and a 2025 5th Round pick
On Saturday evening, the Panthers sent away Anthony Duclair, who missed a portion of the season with an Achilles injury, to San Jose for forward Steven Lorentz. The move was mostly made to create cap space, as the move opened up an extra $1.95 million for the Panthers to work with to improve the depth of the team. Lorentz is a big-bodied, bottom-six forward who is good on the penalty kill and the forecheck, and can play anywhere on a line. He had 10 goals and 9 assists in 80 games for San Jose last season and stands at a hulking 6’4” and weighs about 205 pounds. At 27 years of age, Lorentz likely won’t become anything more than he already is, but a fourth liner who can play solid hockey in all three zones was something that the Panthers desperately needed, especailly considering how important Vegas’ fourth line was in the Stanley Cup Finals in shutting down some of the Panthers’ best players.
FORWARDS
Kevin Stenlund, C
Contract: 1 Year, $1 Million
2022-23 Team: Winnipeg Jets
2022-23 Stats: 54 GP, 6 G, 3 A, 9 PTS, 20 PIM, 11:39 TOI
Stenlund, much like trade acquisition Steven Lorentz, is a bottom-six forward who can play solid defense 5v5 (although Lorentz is arguably much better suited to penalty killing duties than Stenlund). Stenlund fills in the hole left by the departure of Eric Staal, who, at 38, is likely going to retire rather than play another season and can likely take on greater minute loads than the aging Staal was able to. Much like Lorentz, Stenlund is a big man, coming in at 6’4” and about 210 pounds. Stenlund likely is there to win faceoffs, something he did quite well in the 2022-23 season, winning 280 faceoffs and losing only 246 for a faceoff percentage of 53.2%, which was higher than anyone on the Panthers who took over 100 faceoffs last season apart from Aleksander Barkov. Stenlund’s role will likely be as a shutdown fourth line center that can win faceoffs in the defensive zone, which was anoher critical area of improvement for the Panthers this off-season considering how Vegas’ fourth line performed in the Cup Finals and the Panthers’ struggles in the faceoff dots on several occasions this past season.
Evan Rodrigues, C/LW
Contract: 4 Years, $12 Million ($3 Million Cap Hit)
2022-23 Team: Colorado Avalanche
2022-23 Stats: 69 GP, 16 G, 23 A, 39 PTS, 30 PIM, 17:51 TOI
This is where the cap savings from the Anthony Duclair trade come into play, as the Panthers used the almost $2 million they got in extra space to help bring in Evan Rodrigues, an analytical darling who’s played some solid hockey in recent years for the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Colorado Avalanche, the latter of whom he played for last season. Rodrigues plays a much more well-rounded game than Duclair and can fit anywhere on a top nine. He’s a very good playmaker who gets underrated because his finishing can be pretty inconsistent and his power play abilities are nothing special. However, he can play against good competition and with good teammates and more than hold his own, which earned him the longest and most lucrative contract that Bill Zito has ever given out to an unrestricted free agent (not including extensions, RFA signings, or sign and trades). Rodrigues can easily slot in on the second line left wing spot with Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk, as that line desperately needs a playmaker as that line was flummoxed and couldn’t create anything in the Stanley Cup Finals with Nick Cousins in that left wing role. Rodrigues should be able to solve that problem and help that line be able to create some plays even when it may not look like there’s any opportunities there and he can help that line defensively as well. While losing Duclair does hurt, this acquisition of Rodrigues softens that blow and also is much more cost-controlled, considering that he makes the same as Duclair in terms of cap hit and is under contract for three more seasons than the recently-traded Duclair.
Grigori Denisenko, LW
Contract: 2 Years, $1.55 Million ($775K Cap Hit)
2022-23 Team: Florida Panthers
2022-23 Stats: 18 GP, 0 G, 3 A, 3 PTS, 4 PIM, 9:53 TOI
The Panthers’ 2018 first round draft pick didn’t play enough games to get a JFresh card for his performance this last season, but in an interview with FloridaHockeyNow, Denisenko stated that he wanted to be back in Florida and wanted another chance at the NHL level, feeling that he could show up in camp and earn a spot. The talent has been there for him and he’s shown it in flashes at the AHL level, putting up 36 points in 56 games for Charlotte this past season. He’s had some bad luck with injuries and a lack of opportunity considering the Checkers opting out of the 2020-21 AHL season and the broken kneecap ending his 2021-22 season prematurely. Zito seems to buy into the idea of giving Denisenko a chance, as he alluded to needing to incorporate younger, cost-controlled players into the team in the future and was willing to give him a two-year deal rather than a more typical one-year deal. The opportunity may be there for him in training camp to push his way into the lineup, and Denisenko could finally begin to show off the talent that made him worthy of a first round pick five years ago, but at the NHL level this time.
DEFENSEMEN
Niko Mikkola, LD
Contract: 3 Years, $7.5 Million ($2.5 Million Cap Hit)
2022-23 Teams: St. Louis Blues, New York Rangers
2022-23 Stats (Total): 81 GP, 1 G, 5 A, 6 PTS, 58 PIM, 17:26 TOI
Niko Mikkola was a defenseman that was included in the Vladimir Tarasenko trade to New York and who played up and down the lineup for the Rangers in his time there. He played the vast majority of his minutes in Manhattan with Norris finalist Adam Fox, but also saw time with Jacob Trouba and Braden Schneider. Mikkola can play up and down the lineup and also is quite strong defensively and on the penalty kill. He may not play against the best competition, but his ability to play with almost anybody will likely make a valuable asset for a Panthers defense that needed some versatility and that also needed some more defensive minded players, especially with the departure of Radko Gudas. Mikkola signed the same type of deal that Gudas signed back in 2020 and likely will be playing in a similar role for the team, playing on the second and third pair and being a key piece to the penalty kill. Mikkola also is 6’4” and weighs in at 209 pounds, so he has the size and strength that the team was looking for as well as the defensive ability and sturdiness that the team needed considering their weakness defensively throughout the season. Is it a risky signing? Yes, but there is plenty of reward if this signing ends up working out.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, LD
Contract: 1 Year, $2.25 Million
2022-23 Team: Vancouver Canucks
2022-23 Stats: 54 GP, 2 G, 20 A, 22 PTS, 22 PIM, 20:11 TOI
When you consider the fact that both Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad will both be out at the start of the season for an unknown amount of time, bringing in a player like Oliver Ekman-Larsson, an offensive-minded defenseman who likely fills in as a temporary power play quarterback, makes sense for the Panthers. While he’s not the player that he was in Arizona at his peak, OEL can still be a solid contributor to a team as he was for Vancouver in 2021-22 before an awful 2022-23 campaign led the Canucks to buy out the defenseman from the remaining four years of his contract. The Panthers won’t have to buyout OEL if the signing ends up not working out, as his contract is only for one season. There is some reason for optimism as the defenseman often was heavily burdened by having to play against really good competition while being paired with the awful Tyler Myers for the vast majority of the season. While I do struggle to see a fit once the team is fully healthy, especially with finding a partner for 5v5, OEL could potentially work well with Brandon Montour or even on the bottom pairing with another free agent signing. It’s a classic buy-low move from Bill Zito and even though it likely only ends up being a temporary fix, especially considering the fact that OEL likely gets demoted to the second power play unit and down to the second pairing at best once the team is full healthy. If OEL’s two-way play can rebound to 2021-22 levels, then this signing is a solid one for the Panthers’ blue line depth.
Mike Reilly, LD
Contract: 1 Year, $1 Million
2022-23 Team: Boston Bruins
2022-23 Stats: 10 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PTS, 2 PIM, 16:44 TOI
Another analytical darling picked up here by Zito as Reilly’s had solid analytics throughout the last couple of seasons with the Boston Bruins, especially considering his even strength two-way play. However, the issue with Reilly is that he barely played at all for the Bruins in this past season, often being a healthy scratch and spending some time buried in the minors as the Bruins set records for most wins in the regular season. Reilly was also bought out by the team this summer, so much like with Ekman-Larsson, the Panthers looked tothe buyout market to find some blue line depth. The issue with Reilly that led to these scratches, the demotions, and the eventual buyout are that despite Reilly’s strong analytics, he can be prone to making some bad mistakes with the puck in his own end and take penalties at inopportune times, often earning him the ire of Bruins fans. Reilly is a decent depth defenseman when he’s not making those errors, but those errors can often be made at really bad times, which often can cause problems, not just with the fanbase but also with the coaching staff. He doesn’t tower over anybody and isn’t ridiculously physical, but Reilly, as a whole, is a solid player who can be very useful in a depth role and is a very nice low-risk, high-reward signing, especially at only a one-year deal worth only $1 million.
Dmitry Kulikov, LD/RD
Contract: 1 Year, $1 Million
2022-23 Teams: Anaheim Ducks, Pittsburgh Penguins
2022-23 Stats (TOTAL): 67 GP, 3 G, 13 A, 16 PTS, 34 PIM, 19:28 TOI
Probably the biggest surprise from day one of free agency for the Panthers was this move: the return of Dmitry Kulikov. The former Panther 2009 first round pick has become a bit of a journeyman since being traded to Buffalo back in 2016. The thing that Kulikov has going for him is that he’s a relatively serviceable defenseman who maybe has issues in bigger roles (although to be fair, Anaheim’s entire defense was awful this past season and Kulikov, while not being terrible, certainly didn’t help his case). Kulikov, in the past three seasons, has been on five different teams, often being moved at trade deadlines as teams see him as a serviceable option that is available for the cheap and won’t cause too much trouble out on the ice. His defensive metrics took a major dip in his time with Anaheim, but were decent enough in bottom pairing minutes in the last couple of seasons that frankly, warranted the one-year deals that he’s been getting in recent years. The 32-year-old isn’t known for being extremely large (only listed at 6’1” and 199 pounds) or overly physical, but he can play decent enough defense and has plenty of NHL experience (872 games played up to this point). He also has experience with head coach Paul Maurice in the past, spending the 2017-18 to 2019-20 seasons with the Winnipeg Jets. Kulikov knows a thing or two because he’s seen a thing or two, and while he’s not the same Kulikov that he was when the Panthers traded him, these are certainly not the same Panthers that he left. Kulikov, who can play either side on the blue line, likely won’t be a top-four contributor night-in, night-out, but can still be a very solid depth defensive defenseman at a very affordable salary.
GOALTENDERS
Anthony Stolarz
Contract: 1 Year, $1.1 Million
2022-23 Team: Anaheim Ducks
2022-23 Stats: 19 GP, 5 W, .897 SV%, 3.73 GAA, -3.7 GSAA
The Panthers replace Alex Lyon, who signed with Detroit, with a younger goalie who’s had some level of success with several different organizations throughout his hockey career. Most notably, Stolarz played 28 games for the Ducks in the 2021-22 and managed to get a SV% of .917 and a goals saved above average (GSAA) of 8.2, which for a backup/third-string goalie is quite good. There are some rumors that the organization may have Stolarz up in the NHL to start the year to give Spencer Knight some more playing time in Charlotte to help him get back in the swing of things. If that’s the case, then Stolarz can be a solid backup for Sergei Bobrovsky until the organization feels that Knight is ready to get back into the NHL. Once that happens, Stolarz likely ends up in Charlotte if he passes through waivers, and he likely performs well there and if he does pass through waivers, will remain a very solid third option for the Panthers this season and give them some goaltending depth throughout the organization, which is always a plus.
CONCLUSION
If you include, Lucas Carlsson, the Panthers signed five left-shot defensemen for next season, which is a lot. However, all the free agent signings the Panthers made all fit one or more of the types of free agents that Bill Zito tends to gravitate towards. Every free agent signing is a solid to serviceable depth piece at a very reasonable price and not for a very long term; most of them were either bought out by previous teams, not tendered a qualifying offer by their previous team, or were not deemed key players and allwoed to hit the open market. Evan Rodrigues’ contract is both the longest and most expensive contract that Zito has handed out in free agency during his tenure as general manager. The Panthers improved their depth and their defense as well, which were both major priorities for the team in free agency. They also got a solid third goaltender in Anthony Stolarz to replace the departing Alex Lyon, too. They also made sure to keep as much cap space as possible available for next summer, when players like Sam Reinhart, Anton Lundell, Brandon Montour, and Eetu Luostarinen will all be due for pay raises. Is it the most glamorous free agency class teeming with star power? No. But is it a solid free agency class with plenty of good to decent players that don’t break the bank? Absolutely. I can’t say that I absolutely love the class, but I like what the Panthers were able to do in the first 24 to 48 hours of free agency. They improved their depth and defense and none of the contracts they signed were really bad ones. It may not be full of star power, but this is some pretty solid work by the Panthers in the early days of free agency.
(Thumbnail Credit: FloridaHockeyNow)
Thank you to @JFresh on Twitter and Substack for the player cards. He does some excellent work with hockey analytics and trying to make them easy for the masses to understand. Please give him a follow on Twitter and subscribe to his Patreon if you want to support the work that he does.)