The Panthers' Top Prospect is Finally Here!
2021 1st round pick Mackie Samoskevich just signed his first contract with the Florida Panthers. Let's break down his game and see what all the hype is about for the Panthers' top prospect.
The Panthers’ prospect pipeline in recent years was greatly weakened as several prospects and draft picks were traded away to try and supplement the team’s roster for playoff runs in the short-term. While some of those trades have worked out in the Panthers’ favor and others have not, one prospect that survived the Great Prospect Pipeline Purge was 2021 1st round selection Mackie Samoskevich, the most recent first round pick that the team made (and given that they don’t have a first round pick until 2026 at the earliest, that statement will stay true for a while. Any time that anyone mentions Panthers prospects, Samoskevich’s name always comes up and there are plenty of people in the fan base who have a lot of expectations for him once he gets to the NHL, especially after some strong seasons with the powerhouse team at University of Michigan. He arguably is the best prospect that the Panthers have left, so what can we expect from Mackie Samoskevich, how did he get to be the Panthers’ top prospect, and what upside does he have at the NHL level?
When the Panthers drafted Samoskevich, many outlets seemed to praise the pick. Most mock drafts seemed to have Samoskevich going just outside of the first round at around 34th overall, but the thing that people who follow the drafts regularly will say is that the difference in value between 24th overall (where the Panthers selected Samoskevich) and 34th overall (where most outlets had him projected to go around) is negligible at best. Samoskevich played for an absolutely stacked Chicago Steel team in the USHL in his draft year where he played with fellow first round selection Matthew Coronato, as well as NHL draft picks Sean Farrell, Josh Doan, and Ryan Ufko [brief note: another player on that 2020-21 Chicago Steel team was Adam Fantilli, who is projected to be the 2nd overall pick in the upcoming 2023 draft] and won the Clark Cup.
Samoskevich’s numbers with the Steel in his draft year aren’t as eye-catching as some of his teammates (13 goals and 24 assists for 37 points in 36 games), but he was seen as an incredibly talented play-maker at the USHL level and that skill set did indeed translate to the University of Michigan. In his first year, he mostly was deployed in the middle six as the 2021-22 Michigan Wolverines were loaded with talent, including players like Matt Beniers, Kent Johnson, Thomas Bordeleau, and Brendan Brisson (all of whom were drafted inside the top 40 in their respective draft classes, with all but Bordeleau being selected in the first round). Even with less playing time, Samoskevich still managed to produce, scoring 10 goals and 19 assists in 40 games as Michigan went all the way to the national championship, where they lost to fellow Panthers prospect Michael Benning and the University of Denver Pioneers. The next year, in a much bigger role with the Wolverines, Samoskevich thrived, scoring 20 goals and 23 assists in 39 games, placing him second in scoring among Michigan forwards, behind only Adam Fantilli. While Michigan did not make it as far in the NCAA tournament in 2022-23 as they did in 2021-22, Samoskevich’s improvement in production after the departure of several stars (Johnson, Beniers, Brisson, etc.) is a great indication of his abilities and a sign that he can easily move up into higher-leverage roles and play more minutes without it negatively impacting his production or his play, which will be very important for him as he transitions to the pro level.
The thing that excites me (and many others) about Samoskevich is his skating ability. Samoskevich is REALLY fast, very elusive, and agile on his edges. This makes him an absolute nightmare to deal with in transition for opposing defenders. Samoskevich also is very strong on his skates for his size, making it extremely difficult to knock him off the puck. Couple that with his elusiveness on his skates and his speed and you can understand why analysts say that his skating is the strongest aspect of his game: when you have a player who’s fast, elusive, and strong on the puck, that’s virtually impossible for a defense to deal with in transition. This forces a defense to give him enough space to the point where he can display another amazing skill: his playmaking. Since his skating is superb, the fantastic playmaking and great hands can often get lost in the fold, but his hands are just as good as his feet. In both the USHL and NCAA, Samoskevich proved to be an offensive engine who can drive the play of an entire line with his incredible stickhandling, vision, and crisp and accurate passing. He’s the type of player you want carrying the puck through the neutral zone on a rush or making plays in the offensive zone. He can get the crowd out of their seats in a hurry with highlight reel plays and has the top-end offensive talent that can be difficult to find late in the first round. He was rated as one of the top 5 play makers in the 2021 draft and looks to be an incredible asset on the rush and in transition. His shot isn’t as great as his passing, but it’s solid enough, especially considering his good release in his snap shots and wrist shots. His shooting will likely improve as he continues to add strength (his 20 goal season at the University of Michigan does seem to bode well for his future) and he doesn’t have an aversion to shooting like some other playmaking forwards have been known to have. Interestingly, most of his goals in the USHL came from the left-side slot and mostly was utilized in the offensive zone at that level, so even going back to his USHL days, Samoskevich has been seen more as a dynamic presence in the offensive zone thanks to his excellent skating and fantastic playmaking, two things that Panthers fans will be sure to love when they finally see him play.
Defensively, Samoskevich’s game isn’t as heralded and he doesn’t get a lot of deployment in the defensive zone or on the penalty kill, but he does work hard in that end and try to backcheck. His best ability defensively is his ability to quickly make a pass or clearing attempt to transition from defense into offense quickly. Again, the transition game seems to work best with his skill set. There are concerns over him being a bit risky with puck management in his own zone and his tendency to get pushed around by larger, stronger forwards in the cycle game, which likely could hamper a coach’s opinion of him, but his hard work on the forecheck (especially the pressure he puts on defenders and his willingness to get to the dirty areas on the ice [in front of the net, for example]) and backcheck should render him more than completely useless in postseason play or in more physical types of games. Strength, while an issue for Samoskevich, is something that he could improve upon as he transitions to a pro game and begins dealing with professional strength and conditioning regimens. While his strength issues likely prevent him from playing center at the pro level, he’s profiled more as a winger since he was drafted and has played more as a winger during his time at Michigan, so he won’t have to completely change his entire body type in order to transition to the NHL level nor add a ton of weight in order to be effective. The only real concern is whether or not he can improve his play enough in the defensive zone in order to handle the NHL’s physicality and make good enough decisions to the point where he can play the 200-foot game that the Panthers seem to be favoring with their transactions in recent years.
Comparing Samoskeich’s draft year production to other Panthers prospects in their draft years (not including players who made the NHL), he’s one of only two players that played at least 5 games in his draft year that got over a point per game in his draft year, the other being 2017 2nd rounder Aleksi Heponiemi. Interestingly, the 36 USHL games were a lot less than the 49 he played the year before, as Samoskevich missed games with injuries. While his production doesn’t blow anyone out of the water the way that other prospects have, it’s still great production at the USHL level and his production did translate from the USHL to the NCAA, and his brief stint with the Charlotte Checkers also wielded 6 assists in 7 games (combined regular season and playoffs), so Samoskevich’s production, while not world-beating, has remained consistent, which will be very important for him as he tries to transition to the pro game and eventually make the NHL level.
When it comes to NHL upside, Samoskevich looks like he will be a solid top-9 winner at the NHL level who can also be a play driver on the power play. He likely won’t get played much on the penalty kill and won’t produce like a superstar, but he can be a 25-30 goal scorer who can put up around a point per game at the NHL level if he ends up consistently playing in the top 6. His player comparison is Maple Leafs star Mitch Marner thanks to his combination of amazing skating and great playmaking skills, but Samoskevich likely won’t produce at the level that Marner does in the NHL and likely won’t be deployed in all situations the way Marner is for the Leafs. Interestingly, a lot of people in the fan base that I’ve spoken to about Mackie have slotted him in on the top line with Sasha Barkov. However, I personally don’t believe that this is a good fit for him. Offensively, Barkov and Samoskevich are both playdrivers who are most effective with the puck on their stick and prefer to create plays rather than finish them. In my view, Samoskevich will be better served playing with a center like Sam Bennett, who can still be extremely effective offensively without the puck on his stick, is more prone to shooting rather than passing, and can create the space for Samoskevich to make plays by taking the defense out of the play. Putting Samoskevich on a line with Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk will allow Samoskevich to be the playdriver of the line and create plays for Bennett and Tkachuk to cash in 5 on 5. Stylistically, Samoskevich may have the talent of a top-line forward, but likely would be better off playing on a second line with Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk since those players, in my opinion, fit better with Samoskevich’s skill set and play style. All in all, Mackie Samoskevich has earned the reputation as the Panthers’ best prospect and looks to be a solid top six to top nine winger at the NHL level who can also produce on the power play. We’ll see if he earns a roster spot straight out of training camp or ends up playing the 2023-24 season with AHL Charlotte, but whatever the case may be, Mackie Samoskevich will definitely be a player to watch next season and in the years to come.
The following clips are Samoskevich’s overtime winner against Penn State that sent Michigan to the 2023 Frozen Four and a highlight package from his draft year with the USHL’s Chicago Steel. His EliteProspects page can be viewed here.